b l u e o r a n g e

11/02/12 Premier League Betting

2012-02-11T12:39:00.002Z

There's only two games that look to have any value in this week. In the Everton vs Chelsea game to value looks to be in the under 1.5 and 2.5 goals markets. I have the former at 2.3(3.35) and the latter at 1.42(1.79). The away side in the Sunderland vs Arsenal game look far too short when compared to my odds. I think they should be around the 4.39 mark but on Betfair they are 2.06 so I'll be laying them.

I Need Some Help....

2012-01-27T15:39:00.001Z

....With using a spreadsheet more efficiantly. At the moment I input the Premier League fulltime scores into one spreadsheet then take the end results and put it into another spreadsheet and then another one to get to the outcome for my odds. What I want is to just type in the scores and the spreadsheet just does the rest. I've tried getting it all linked together but with no luck. I haven't a clue about all the codes or formulas etc. I'm not very computer minded! Any help would be appreciated.

21/01/12 Premier League Betting

2012-01-20T23:30:00.000Z

After a profit of 1.17 points on last weekends' Premier League bets let's see if my ratings can predict more profits.

Bolton vs Liverpool - Lay Liverpool@1.63(2.58).
Everton vs Blackburn - Lay Everton@1.58(2.26).
Fulham vs Newcastle - Back over 2.5 goals@2.16(1.67).
Q.P.R vs Wigan - Back Wigan@3.94(2.62) and Back over 2.5 goals@2.16(1.61).
Arsenal vs Man Utd - Back under 2.5 goals@2.12(1.6)

2012-01-13T23:47:00.001Z

It's been a while since I've posted on the blog mainly due to the recent festivities! I hadn't the time to write of any value bets that came up whilst looking at my ratings and typically there were plenty of short odds favourites highlighted that were ripe for laying which ended up as winning bets.

Onto the games this weekend. Again the ratings are highlighting that the strong favourites have odds that are far too low. Now that is not to say that they won't win, most probably they will but if you backed them every week at these low odds you would be down in the long term. Just look at some of the results over the festive period to see that sometimes the heavily backed favourite can lose.

Chelsea vs Sunderland - Lay Chelsea@1.41(2.48).
Man Utd vs Bolton - Lay Man Utd@1.17(1.52).
Tottenham vs Wolves - Lay Tottenham@1.28(1.56), Back under 1.5 goals@5.8(3.01), Back under 2.5 goals@2.62(1.67).
Newcastle vs Q.P.R. - Lay Newcastle@1.77(2.41).
Swansea vs Arsenal - Lay Arsenal@1.81(2.61).
Wigan vs Man City - Lay Man City@1.44(1.96).

2011-12-20T22:05:00.001Z

In tomorrows Premier League matches my odds are very similar to those on Betfair in most of the matches. Only 2 games stand out; Everton vs Swansea and Fulham vs Man Utd. In both I'll be laying the favourite team. Everton at 1.63(2.28) and Man Utd at 1.79(2.58).

Weekend Premier League 17-18/12/11

2011-12-17T13:07:00.005Z

There are not so many matches that have the required value(12%) this week. Two games on saturday are Fulham vs Bolton and Wolves vs Stoke. In the 1st game going for over 2.5 goals looks the best option at 1.83(1.47). The 2nd game the value is in the home win at 2.6(1.73). That's a 19.34% difference between my odds and the Betfair odds.

Onto the sunday fixtures. Q.P.R vs Man Utd, Aston Villa vs Liverpool and Man City vs Arsenal. I'll be laying Man Utd again as their odds are yet again too low at 1.5 when I have them at 2.1. Also in this game betting on under 1.5 goals at 4.3(2.63) and under 2.5 goals at 2.1(1.54) is the way to go. In the 2nd match I have both teams pretty much equal in the ratings so I have to lay Liverpool at 1.98 as I have that outcome at 2.76. In the last match both teams are high scoring but I still think people have underestimated the overs markets. I have over 2.5 goals at 1.13(!) and over 3.5 at 1.44 when on Betfair they are 1.66 and 2.66 respectively.

Premier League 10/12/11

2011-12-09T20:40:00.001Z

It's been a tough couple of weeks on the Premier League betting front. Laying strong favourites may not seem like the best idea but it has to be done when I believe their odds are too short.
Onto this saturdays fixtures there are 3 games that that interest me. First up is Liverpool vs QPR. The home side should win this but the odds on Betfair are 1.36 when I have them more as a 1.95 shot. Next up is Man Utd vs Wolves. The home side are priced up at 1.27 which seems far too short and 1.61 looks more realistic. Lastly is Swansea vs Fulham. Looking at my ratings it clearly shows that this match should be a low scoring one and has flagged up under 1.5 goals. Betfair has this at 3.1 and the ratings have it at 2.16. Also I'll be laying Fulham at odds of 2.94 as I think they should be 5.39.

2011-12-01T21:03:00.001Z

Newcastle vs Chelsea - Home win@3.95(2.54)

Tottenham vs Bolton - Lay Home@1.36(1.7)

Wigan vs Arsenal - Lay Away@1.61(2.89), Over 2.5 goals@1.76(1.24) and Over 3.5 goals@2.8(1.81).

Sorry just a quick post of what value my ratings have come up with.

Premier League Bets 27/11/11

2011-11-25T11:58:00.001Z

There are 2 matches on sunday. In the Swansea vs Aston Villa game I rate the home side at 1.71 on Betfair you can get 2.28 or thereabouts. The only reason I can see their odds being bigger than they should be is a reaction to them being new boys.
The big match is the Liverpool vs Man City game. I think the backers have overestimated the home sides chances. I know they beat Chelsea last weekend but Man City are a far better team. I rate Liverpool at 4.47 to win, on Betfair it's around 2.92. It's almost worth laying them but as I rate the away win at 1.75 and it's available at 2.66 on the exchanges I will go for that.

Premier League Bets 26/11/11

2011-11-24T16:07:00.001Z

It wasn't a bad 1st week for my Premier League bets last weekend. Laying the heavy favourites let me down but their odds were far too low so it had to be done.
This weekend there are more goals bets with some good odds. My favourite bets are in the under 1.5 goals markets, the odds are usually pretty good and it's quite rare for my ratings to highlight a value bet in this market.

Stoke vs Blackburn - Away Win@5.0(3.09).
Bolton vs Everton - Over 2.5 goals@1.93(1.51).
Sunderland vs Wigan - Over 2.5 goals@2.0(1.51).
Arsenal vs Fulham - Under 1.5 goals@4.8(2.81) and Under 2.5 goals@2.32(1.6).*

*The odds in brackets are what my ratings suggest the odds should be.

The First Premier League Bets Of The Season

2011-11-17T19:52:00.001Z

Below is a list of bets that my ratings have highlighted as value bets. Now there have been some strange results already this season; Man Utd getting thrashed by their city rivals as well as Arsenal losing 8-2 to Man Utd. My ratings take into account all recent form and as such they might be a little skewed. For example Man Utd's ability to score might be overrated and also their chances of conceding could also be overrated because of the two scorelines mentioned above.

Everton vs Wolves - Lay Everton@1.65(2.28).
Man City vs Newcastle - Lay Man City@1.35(1.66).
Norwich vs Arsenal - Over 2.5 goals@1.67(1.26).
Swansea vs Man Utd - Lay Man Utd@1.58(2.82) and under 2.5 goals@2.08(1.6).
WBA vs Bolton - Lay WBA@2.1(2.88).
Wigan vs Blackburn - Over 2.5 goals@2.0(1.56).
Chelsea vs Liverpool - Over 2.5 goals@1.95(1.56).*

*The odds in brackets are what my ratings suggest the odds should be.

The Championship 01/11/11

2011-11-01T19:49:00.006Z

I've got a few value bets for tonights Championship games. In the game at Barnsley under 1.5 goals is backable at 3.35 and under 2.5 goals available at 1.77. My ratings have it as 2.3 and 1.42. Next game up is at Turf Moor. Burnley are slightly under-rated at 2.76, I rate them at 2.06. I have gone for under 1.5 and 2.5 goals in the game at Crystal Palace. I got odds of 3.25 and 1.76 when my ratings suggest this should be 2.46 and 1.47 respectively. In the Millwall game again the under 1.5 and 2.5 goals markets are showing the most promise. On the exchanges the odds are 3.7 and 1.88 whereas I think this should be 2.46 and 1.47. Lastly Reading have a better chance of beating Nottingham Forest than the odds are suggesting. I got 3.3 on Betfair, it should be closer to 2.17.

Finally Back To Betting

2011-10-21T21:59:00.000+01:00

It's been a very busy month for me with lots of changes in my life. For one thing I really hate moving home, such a pain in the arse!
My ratings for the Championship are finally ready for their 1st outing and next week the Premier League ratings should be ready so it's full steam ahead for me on the betting front.

Blackpool have odds of 2.16 on Betfair where I think they should be rated at 1.66. Cardiff are worth laying at 1.72, I have the odds as 2.31. Hull are another lay at 1.82, my ratings are saying they should be 2.98. Coventry have a better chance than the odds suggest of beating Burnley at 2.67(2.08). Finally it might be worth laying Ipswich as I have their opponents; Crystal Palace matching them ratings wise, 1.98(2.64).

Slacking...

2011-09-15T21:45:00.000+01:00

I've been pretty slack with betting and blog writing in general over the last 2 weeks. Other things have been more of a priority for me but with the football season hotting up I couldn't stay away for too long.
In my league winners accumulator the only team that's not performing as good as their odds suggested is Crawley. It's still early days so I'm not too worried, they stormed the Bluesquare Premier last season and the promoted teams usually keep the momentum going into League 2.
One type of bet that some of my friends like doing on a saturday afternoon is the Goals Galore bet at the local Betfred. It keeps you entertained whilst watching the scores come up on Soccer Saturday down the pub. They sometimes win but far more often than not they don't and that makes them greedy so they put an extra game down to potentially win more back. Betfred got burnt a few times on this bet last season so now they've lowered their odds and omitted to put games on the coupon if there is a good chance that both teams will score. Last week I had a go at this bet but I went on Oddschecker to find the bookie with the best odds. I picked 4 games and I got 25% better odds than I would've done if I'd gone down the local Betfred shop. The lesson is to shop around for the best odds and another is to try and work out the real chances of both teams scoring. This is something I'll be looking at doing with the help of my ratings in the next month. Oh and as for my bet? It lost 2 teams let me down!

The Belgian Grand Prix

2011-08-26T21:28:00.000+01:00

It doesn't seem as if 4 weeks have passed since the Hungarian Grand Prix, it's flown by.
The Spa race is one of my favourites it's just everything a grand prix should be with long fast straights, challenging corners and the unpredictable weather so I know this should be very entertaining.
So who's going to win? Well I think that the Red Bulls will again struggle to be top of the podium. McLaren look to continue their good form so I wouldn't rule out either driver. Alonso is also a driver you can't rule out and should probably finish on the podium. Vettel's odds for winning are around 3.55 on the exchanges, far too short in my eyes. Ok he'll probably do well in the qualifying but his race confidence will be low and nothing suggests he should be favourite. Hamilton's odds are similar and as usual at least half the odds of his team mate. His aggression means he always will be one of the favourites. Button on the other hand bides his time and thinks more strategically in the race.
I think I'll put my main bet as Button to win at best odds of 13/2 and have a saver bet on Hamilton at 11/4.

New Premier League Season

2011-08-11T19:32:00.000+01:00

The new season is nearly upon us and although it is a little tempting to have a bet I shall resist. My ratings will only come into their own once the Premier League teams have a few games under their belts so the earliest I'll be betting is around mid october. Another long wait for me then...!
The reason I can't use last season's form to go straight into betting this season is that those games were played in late march through to may. A lot has changed with all the teams in-between then and now, lots of comings and goings, three newly promoted teams and it's hardly recent form which is of vital importance for accurate ratings. I could write up my ratings 'as if' the previous season's ratings were part of this seasons' but I think it's pretty pointless from a betting point of view and my ratings would look the worse for it. Now I'm not saying that my ratings are perfect by any means, they need to be monitored carefully and a bit of tinkering might be needed now and again. The problem as always with a market is that it gets more efficient. If more and more people are finding value then the market will react to lessen that value.

Finally The New Football Season!!!

2011-08-04T20:00:00.000+01:00

I thought I'd start off this season by having a league winners accumulator in a perm bet. Only for very small money obviously as it's a long time for money to be tied up.
In the Premier League it's hard to see beyond Man Utd, Chelsea and Man City; it's a case of wise manager, lots of money and far too much money. Arsenal haven't spent much so it'll be much the same as last season. Liverpool have spent £20 million on Downing! Now I know English players are expensive but Liverpool have yet again paid far too much. I can't see them threatening the top 3.
The Championship is a little harder to work out. Of the relegated teams West Ham look the best with Sam Allardyce in charge. His no nonsense approach should see them challenging from the start. Leicester under Eriksson with more new signings should do much better than last season where they under performed. I would add Nottingham Forest to my perm but the lack of signings is a worry so I'll add Brighton. There's usually a promoted team that keeps its momentum going and I think Brighton are this team.
In League One there are plenty of big teams who have fallen on hard times. Sheffield Wednesday, Sheffield Utd and Charlton all former Premier League members and all desperate to get a step closer to get back to the big time. There is a little problem called Huddersfield Town though. They should've gone up last season and had an unbeaten streak of 25 games so this should be their year. Wednesday were seriously disappointing but with the appearance of Sheffield Utd this season could spice things up for both teams. On a different note yet again Yeovil Town are one of the favourites to go down. In the end they had a good season finishing in 14th and a place above Sheffield Wednesday. So why are they top of the to be relegated market? They've lost top scorer Bowditch but manager Skiverton has been busy getting in some good season loan players who are very eager to impress their parent clubs and some permanent signings as well. A definite lay bet.
League Two has a clear favourite for the title; Crawley Town and I can't argue with the bookies on this one. The money and momentum is a massive factor to winning this league.

So here's my bet.

Man Utd 2/1
Chelsea 3/1
Man City 9/2

West Ham 5/1
Leicester 5/1
Brighton 22/1

Huddersfield 6/1
Sheffield Wednesday 7/1
Sheffield Utd 10/1

Crawley 10/3

3x3x3x1 perm.

At the moment William Hill is going best price in these markets.

Hungarian Grand Prix

2011-07-29T22:00:00.000+01:00

Buoyed with the success of last week I expect Hamilton to put up another great performance. McLaren have got a car that can now compete with their rivals. Both the drivers are sounding very positive. For Button this will be his 200th Grand Prix and also the track where he first topped the podium. After a team error at Silverstone and car reliability in Germany he will be determined to get a good result and I think a podium finish is on the cards. The weather will play a part again with light showers possible on early sunday which could mean the temperature will crucially be low enough for the Mclarens to perform to their best. of the other teams the Ferraris seem to be closest to the McLarens but they are worried about tyre wear and are in need of improving their 3rd sector times. Red Bull feel that they have a real battle on their hands to get on the front row and are not expecting much from KERS and DRS so if they don't qualify top they might struggle. I'll be going for a Hamilton win at 4/1(Paddy Power) and Button to finish on the podium at 11/4(bet365).

I woke up this morning to news that the BBC have decided to do a deal with the devil(BSkyB) so that from next season they will only broadcast half the races for the next few years and Sky will broadcast all of the races. BBC News(which is meant to be impartial) have an article on their website saying that this "is a fantastic deal for F1 fans". Sounds like a PR exercise to lesson the backlash. The only reason the BBC is still showing half the races per year is so that the F1 management can say that the sport is still free to view. One of the rules as set out in the Concorde Agreement between F1 and the teams is that it must be broadcast on free to air channels in all countries. This is so that the sport gets the maximum coverage and so the teams' sponsors get max coverage. On Sky even football matches don't get more than 2million viewers whereas F1 on the BBC has been getting over 5million viewers. This has all the hallmarks of a dirty deal. The BBC want to save money but are stuck in a contract for 2 more years, Sky want to gain another sport to add to their ever growing portfolio and Bernie Ecclestone wants the masses of money that Sky possesses. This was the only way all 3 parties can get what they want. What they've forgotten about is the F1 fans. The sport will decline on Sky Sports, they'll never get as many viewers. If this had been a proper deal then the BBC would've had serious talks with Channel 4 and 5 about sharing rights and properly keeping it on terrestrial telly instead of this hash of an agreement. As you can tell I'm a little bit annoyed, I'm not the only one take a look at the link below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/sporteditors/2011/07/f1_coverage_to_be_shared_betwe.html#comments

German Grand Prix

2011-07-22T20:10:00.000+01:00

This should be a very interesting race. Not only has the ban on blown diffusers been lifted but the threat of rain on sunday could cause chaos. The effect of the lifting of the ban should mean that McLaren will be more competitive against the Ferrari team. Red Bull also will become more competitive if that's possible. The cold and possible rain will affect the Ferraris, they seem to have a problem warming up their tyres unlike their main rivals. The Mercedes team are feeling more confident about this weekend by further updating their new aero package so they could play a part.
So what will I be betting on? With the possible wet conditions I'll have McLaren as the winning car at 6/1(Bluesquare). A bet on Webber to win at 13/2(Sportingbet); he will be out for revenge against his team and team mate. Also I think Schumacher is worth a small bet to be on the podium at 16/1(Bet365),it's his home grand prix, he like the wet and he knows the track like no-one else.

Summer Update

2011-07-18T19:28:00.000+01:00

With the new football season fast approaching I'll still not have much to bet on. I use 5 match home/away form as the basis of my Premier League bets so it'll be october before they can be placed. This season I'll be utilising my ratings much more and betting on correct scores and looking into value multiples as well as the normal match and unders/overs betting.
I'm not much of a fan of flat racing it just looks like a cavalry charge. It's jumps racing that interests me but again that doesn't properly get going until october. I'll be doing Scoop6 betting when I have the time to properly look into all the races.
I've been keeping records of the Swedish football and doing some basic ratings to hopefully have a betting interest next summer. At the moment the ratings seem to be a bit conservative as they suggest unders in many of the games. It's early days yet but some tweaking will almost certainly be required to get more of a balance. The Betfair odds and liquidity aren't great with the Swedish matches until just before the start of the game and I can't see that improving with Betfair's madcap new premium charge. Looking on Oddschecker many of the traditional bookmakers offer better odds when you take Betfair's basic 5% commission into account and deduct that from the exchanges prices.

1987721.html.

2011-07-18T18:34:00.001+01:00

Bet(un)fair

2011-06-30T23:24:00.000+01:00

A lot has been said about Betfair and it's new premium charge so I thought I may as well express my opinion on the matter.
Looking on the face of it it seems like Betfair are trying to pull a swift one. They are saying to most of us not to worry this only effects the highest earners; the top 500 bettors. The fact is though that these are the guys with the money that gives markets their liquidity. If they decided to pack up and leave what would some of these markets end up looking like?
Most of us don't use Betfair like a traditional bookmaker, we use it to hopefully come out with consistant profits. Now what's the point of people starting out and wanting to be successful on Betfair only for said company basically turning around and demanding 60% of your profits when you get 'too' successful. We all know this is down to the fact their share prices are falling and they need to keep the shareholders happy.
This reminds me of governments taxing the rich. If you tax them at too a higher rate they will leave the country and take their wealth and businesses elsewhere and you'll end up with nothing. It's like a tightrope walk, taxing/premium charging successful/rich people at a high rate can seem popular with lower rate payers but if their money goes then in the longterm so does much of the prosperity as it won't filter down anymore.
It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few months. Will there be a walkout by the big hitters and where will they go. Betdaq maybe? It is surely an open goal for Betfair's competitors and they can't back down as the share price would plummet.

Formula One

2011-06-27T20:15:00.000+01:00

Something will have to dramatically change in the 2nd half of the Formula One season for Vettel to lose his massive lead. Both McLaren drivers after the European Grand Prix basically resigned themselves to defeat. It seems their team is going backwards as the new enhancements aren't working and the car needs some serious redesigning. Ferrari have improved slightly but nowhere near to the level of the Red Bulls which just leaves Webber in the other Red Bull to challenge for the championship against Vettel. To have any chance Webber will need to win the next two races to make it interesting.

Golf-Well That Didn't Work

2011-06-19T12:57:00.000+01:00

Well the golf didn't go according to plan last night. Rory McIlroy's price didn't shift above 1.49 as the hoped for bogey or challenge from the distant pack never materialised so I took a loss when the price got to 1.3. His price dropped to 1.12 and being 8 ahead I can't see a way he can lose. It would be harder to lose from this position than win!

US Open

2011-06-18T19:54:00.000+01:00

I know Rory McIlroy has a lead of 6 shots but his odds are far too low with still 2 rounds to play. Yeah he's played amazingly well and obviously deserves to win but at odds of 1.45 you just have to lay him. Anything can happen, how many times in golf have you seen someone with a big lead only to chuck it away in the last 2 rounds. I'll be laying him to green up when his odds drift out as I'm sure they will at some point.

Swedish & Norwegian Football

2011-06-10T17:36:00.000+01:00

As I've said in an earlier post I'm going to be looking into the scandinavian leagues to see if there's any potential betting opportunities. So far I've set up some spreadsheets using the same template as my premier League one just to get me started then I can set about tweaking it until every factor looks right. The problem I have now though is that the games on tomorrow so far have only got a small amount matched on each game. Will this improve considerably by tomorrow? Does anyone know? I hope so as the more people placing money will give a more accurate reflection of what the market thinks the result should be and will enable me to compare my ratings. If there isn't enough matched I won't bet as there will be people in Betfairland with a much better knowledge of these leagues that will take great delight in taking my money.

Goodbye Tote.....

2011-06-03T19:32:00.000+01:00

Today Bedfred succeeded in taking control of The Tote. Is this good news for Racing?
The Tote was set up in 1928 to provide an alternative to the illegal off-course bookies and to give extra profits for the racing industry as a whole. This seemed to work well for 70 odd years until Labour got it in their heads that Tote should be sold. After years of negotiations and false starts it has finally been sold for £265 million. Sounds quite a lot until you realise that the previous government refused to sell for £400 million as that undervalued the company so god knows what the Coalition is doing selling it for so little. The taxpayer will end up with £90 million and the racing industry with £90 million. £90 million won't even make a slight ripple in the pool of national debt especially when all the government's cost cutting measures end up being undone by giving billions to failing euro-zone countries. Much better would've have been to give racing £180 million maybe then they could buy the pool side of the Tote business from Bedfred in 3 years time. Betfred have got the licence to the pool betting for 7 years but are allowed to sell after 3 years. The problem with selling The Tote to a bookie is that at the end of the day the bookie is a business and in it for money, it's not a charity. Betfred will want to minimise giving profits to the racing industry this is why I think that the government has made a massive mistake. Why did they need to sell so badly? The Tote was probably the only publicly owned company not needed central government hand outs. The Tote did it's job so why has it been sold down the river?

Sepp Blatter, FIFA And All That

2011-06-01T19:38:00.000+01:00

Well in the great democracy that is FIFA 186 of the worlds' football associations voted resoundingly for Sepp Blatter to retain the Presidency. Are they all under the thumb? Are they hoping that by keeping the same man in charge that they can brush everything under the carpet? Or are they trying to hide their own part in this exhibition of how not to run a world governing body?
The sensible approach would've been to postpone the election of the FIFA President and sort out the way FIFA as a whole was run. For a start there should be an independent panel to decide on corruption charges instead of it being dismissed out of hand behind closed doors by some faceless FIFA cronies. The problem seems to be that any evidence of corruption is quickly thrown out and the people who have brought this evidence to FIFA are soon vilified by them. The English F.A.'s efforts to persuade a postponement of voting was too little too late. Only 17 football associations abstained from voting shows how little influence our F.A. has in the footballing world. I don't think much will change anytime soon unless some proof of corruption so blatant that it can't be hushed up or hidden comes to light.
I'd be interested to hear from non-Britons to get their point of view on this subject. Are we as a nation just naive in thinking the world should care if there are corrupt executives at FIFA?

What To Do Now

2011-05-28T14:22:00.000+01:00

Now that the Premier League has finished this season what shall I do now? Not much betting or trading will be done until the new season. I don't like the flat horse racing, I find there are too many variables so I'll mostly be betting on Formula One (looks like Vettel will be on pole again...).
I'll be evaluating my football ratings to see if they need tweaking at all and I will be looking into the scandinavian leagues to see if I can come up with new ratings for them. Now I don't know a lot about these leagues so I'll not be betting but by doing ratings on them I hope to get to understand and get to know the teams better so that by their next season I will be much more informed to bet on them.

End Of Season

2011-05-20T20:02:00.000+01:00

Well this is the last weekend of the current season of the Premier League and my first season using my ratings. Five games take my fancy. Man City are far too short to win away to Bolton with odds of 1.76 on Betfair, I have it at 5.81! At that price it makes a lot of sense to lay. Also in this game I'd lay over 3.5 goals at 2.8 as I have it as 4.43. I'll be going for over 2.5 goals in the game at Fulham vs Arsenal at 1.8 when it should be 1.43.
If my odds are right then this could be Blackpool's last game in the top flight for a while. I hope not, I really do. They have been good to watch with their style of play and the we'll score more than you mentality. In this game under 3.5 goals looks the one to be on at 1.65 as my ratings have it as 1.36. In the Stoke vs Wigan match I'll be going for a home win at 2.84 as my ratings suggest odds of 1.86. Lastly I'll be
laying Tottenham. Ok they should beat Birmingham, they're 2.04 to win going by my odds so still clear favourites but on Betfair it's 1.57. Far too low in my book.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

2011-05-15T13:12:00.000+01:00

I have finished my ratings for today's Premier League games and the Arsenal vs Aston Villa game is the only one that shows any significant value. All 3 of the unders in the 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals markets show up as value but the under 3.5 goals has the best value at 1.66 on Betfair. My ratings suggesst odds of 1.19. As for the match odds I think 1.42 for the home win is far too low as I have an Arsenal win down as 2.16 so a small lay is worth doing.

Chelsea vs Newcastle

2011-05-14T15:32:00.000+01:00

In the early game tomorrow my ratings have given me odds of 1.28 for under 3.5 goals and on Betfair you can get that outcome for 1.72 which is nearly a 20% difference.
There are 4 more games later on in the day but I haven't updated my ratings for them yet so I'll update you tomorrow if I find any value bets.
I couldn't have got it more wrong in the game at Blackpool where there was a 7 goal thriller but both the bets I had in the Blackburn vs Man Utd game won. Overall I'm up on level stakes for the day.

An Easy Three Points For Man Utd?

2011-05-13T18:50:00.000+01:00

Blackburn vs Man Utd. I have odds of 1.16 for under 3.5 goals and Betfair has it as 1.4. I don't think this will be a stroll in the park for the away side judging by my match odds. I have a home win at 2.55, the away win at 3.31 and the draw at 3.28. Man Utd are 1.8 to win the match so they're worth opposing and I hope Blackburn put up a good fight
The only other bet I'll be placing on saturday's Premier League is in the Blackpool vs Bolton game. Again I'll be betting on under 3.5 goals. My ratings have got odds of 1.16 for this outcome and Betfair have got 1.58.

Betfair Forum

2011-05-09T19:03:00.000+01:00

Do many of you read the posts on the forum/community? There are some seriously desperate and deluded people out there. You have the x £ amount 'challenges'. Yeah I'm sure it looks easy on paper, only 200 winning bets or whatever to get to your target. Why do they need to get to such and such date with x amount of money? Severe debt problems maybe? Sooner or later they will fail as even when betting on 1.1 chances you will still need value, you need an edge and betting on some obscure foreign football league sure isn't the way to go unless you have an in-depth knowledge of that league and believe you have the edge. Their logic seems to be that a 1.1 chance is almost sure to be a winner as the odds are so low but if there is one loss then that is often catastrophic. High stakes, low odds and no edge equals no bank. Then you have the layers who put up endless lists of their daily lays. These are often of anything and everything. Again you need to have an edge but looking by the amount of bets some people place it seems that it's only a matter of time until the bubble bursts. Unless the odds are value in the long term you will lose. Simple. Anyway that's my little rant over with for today!

Not A Bad Sunday

2011-05-08T16:57:00.000+01:00

Both of my over 2.5 goals bets won in today's Premier League action and I'm pretty pleased about the Stoke win as my ratings suggested that Arsenal were far too short at 1.77 to win. The 3-1 result though? Well people were saying Stoke had nothing to play for but every player wants to give the manager every reason to pick him for the F.A Cup final so of course there was something to play for. Arsenal looked tired and the definate underdogs.
My small bet on the Grand Prix didn't go too well with Di Resta failing to finish. It was another good race though. This is a very entertaining season so far but someone needs to start to challenge Vettel soon or he'll race away with the crown. Qualifying is the key to this. He's ace at that so the other teams really need to work on it.

Sunday Premier League

2011-05-08T10:09:00.000+01:00

Two more bets today. First up is the Wolves vs W.B.A. game. The over 2.5 goals market on Betfair have odds of around 1.88 and my own ratings suggest it should be 1.51. The next match up is Stoke vs Arsenal. Again the over 2.5 goals market interests me. My odds are 1.5 and the Betfair odds are 1.9. I also think that Arsenal's odds to win the game are far too short. I rate an away win at 3.09 so the 1.77 on offer has no value at all. Yesterday 1 out of the 2 bets came in meaning after commission I'm ever so slightly down on the day. I was hoping for more in the game at West Ham but you can't win them all.

Saturday Update

2011-05-07T13:05:00.000+01:00

I mentioned yesterday that I had a possible bet in today's Premier League but the odds have gone the other way so it'll be a no bet which just leaves the 2 bets I wrote about previously.
In the Turkish Grand Prix I stuck a small bet on Di Resta to finish in the points at 2.2. Just watching the qualifying and although he starts in 13th he should be able to make a few places up in the race. The price just seemed to high to me although predictably those odds will increase now no doubt.

Premier League 07/05/11

2011-05-06T19:30:00.000+01:00

After looking at my ratings I've got two clear picks and one possible pick if the odds lengthen slightly.
First up is the Newcastle vs Birmingham game. For over 2.5 goals Betfair have odds of 2.04 and my odds are 1.59. Birmingham's lack of away goals is a slight concern but Newcastle are strong against the weaker teams in the league.
The 2nd game is West Ham vs Blackburn, again I'll be going for over 2.5 goals. I've got my odds down as 1.42 whereas on Betfair it's 1.88. Both teams are poor but both need the win so I want an end to end match please!
Last saturday all 4 of my bets came in for a level stakes profit of just over 3 points. Almost half of that is down to the Sunderland vs Fulham match. The home team are trying their best to get relegated that's for sure though I certainly don't mind profiting from that!
I will update you about the possible 3rd bet tomorrow if the odds are in my favour.

Blackburn vs Bolton

2011-04-30T11:02:00.000+01:00

As I promised here is my final bet on today's Premier League matches. I have gone for a lay of over 3.5 goals in the Blackburn vs Bolton game. The liquidity for this market was terrible yesterday with only £4 matched, it's improved overnight only by a few hundred but enough to get my bet matched at 3.6 when my own odds say this should be 8.91.

W.B.A. vs Aston Villa, Sunderland vs Fulham and Chelsea vs Tottenham

2011-04-29T20:30:00.000+01:00

I've got 4 bets in the Premier League tomorrow. Again this seems a lot for one day but as they meet my criteria so I'll be going for them.
In the W.B.A. vs Aston Villa game I'm going for over 2.5 goals which I got for 1.87 on Betfair and my odds have 1.51 for that result. Next up is the Sunderland vs Fulham match where again I've gone for over 2.5 goals. I've got odds of 2.44 and you might be able to get better odds than that. My odds have it as 1.61 so that's quite a difference. Lastly there is the Chelsea vs Tottenham game. I've gone for under 3.5 goals at 1.53 and my ratings suggest that this outcome should be 1.25. I know that I said I have 4 bets but my last one is still unmatched at this moment in time so I'll update you on what it is tomorrow morning so that I don't lose any value by telling you now.

Blackburn vs Man City

2011-04-25T18:04:00.000+01:00

The price has drifted slightly in the under 3.5 goals market so I have taken the 1.37 on offer as my ratings show odds of 1.17. Blackburn are only just above the relegation positions. Man City are in 4th. I think the away side may struggle to beat a side fighting for their survival in the Premier League and this could be a scrappy game.

Bolton vs Arsenal

2011-04-23T20:51:00.000+01:00

I seem to be getting more matches that meet my criteria for betting maybe that's down to the fact it's traditionally 'silly season' and the markets are expecting strange results. Only the Liverpool game let me down today and I came away with a small profit though it could've been worse and I was sure there would be more goals in the Chelsea match than there were. The heavy rain and waterlogged pitch probably ensured I came out winning in the end.
Onto sunday's only Premier league game. I'll be going for over 2.5 goals as I've got that result as 1.36 and I've taken the 1.74 available on Betfair. I'm really hoping both these teams go out and give us some great entertainment. Bolton have only lost 2 at home and scored 31 goals in that time. Arsenal have scored far more goals on their travels than any other team in the Premier League though their defence seems quite shaky at the same time which could prove to be good to get a winning bet.

Premier League 23/04/11

2011-04-22T19:01:00.001+01:00

I've got 3 games that meet my criteria for placing bets on the Premier League. They are the games at Blackpool, Liverpool and Chelsea.
You may have read Green All Over's blog recently where I was mentioned regarding the Newcastle vs Man Utd game the other night. One of the comments suggested that as some bloggers, tipsters etc had all tipped up an over 2.5 game maybe it would be better betting against the tipster/bloggers and going against the crowd. My answer to this would be that the 'crowd' is actually the Betfair market where potentially thousands of people have backed and layed bets. My odds differed from Betfair so in effect I was going against the crowd. If you follow the crowd you are going to get little or no value, you will win in the short term but not enough in the long term to make a profit. You need to have an edge.
I only have a bet when the Betfair odds differ from mine by 12%. I do this as to compensate for the Betfair commission and to make sure the profit margin is high enough. Of course my ratings aren't perfect but they seem to work at the moment but there is always the fear that the market may get evermore efficient and the value will just disappear.
Anyway back to tomorrow's bets. In the Blackpool vs Newcastle match I've layed over 2.5 goals at 1.7. My odds are 2.32. I've gone for under 3.5 goals in the game at Liverpool. My odds are 1.21 and on Betfair I got 1.45. In the Chelsea match I've gone again for under 3.5 goals, odds of 1.74 was available for an outcome that I believe should be at odds of 1.31.

Chelsea vs Birmingham

2011-04-20T19:58:00.001+01:00

Sorry I'm late writing this. I've only just finished the ratings for this game. I thought it'd be a good idea to go for a run after work...Can't there be an easier way to keep fit?!
Anyway onto the game. I've got under 3.5 goals at 1.18 and it's available at 1.7 in-play.
Yesterday's match didn't go to plan with a dismal 0-0 though Man Utd's penalty claim was entertaining. I'm glad he got a yellow card for diving cos that's what it was. Look at the replay, he must have got the piss ripped out of him today by his team mates on the training ground for that rubbish piece of acting.

Newcastle Utd vs Man Utd

2011-04-19T18:28:00.000+01:00

This is a big game tonight for these 2 teams. Settling for a draw is not on anyone's agenda. Newcastle are currently in 10 position in the league but only 5 points off the relegation zone so a win against the league leaders will give them some breathing space and something for their loyal fans to gloat about. Man Utd need the 3 points to capitalise on Arsenal's failure to beat Liverpool in injury time on sunday. A win over Newcastle will tighten their grasp on the title and make it very hard for them to be caught. Newcastle have scored in their last 9 home games so a goal from them wouldn't be out of the ordinary. Man Utd on the other hand have been inconsistent of late by conceding goals at places you wouldn't expect though they have the firepower to get back into games as we saw at West Ham. My ratings suggest for over 1.5 goals the odds should be 1.12 and are available at 1.31. For the over 2.5 goals they should be 1.36 whereas on Betfair they're 1.96 which is a 22% difference.

Arsenal vs Liverpool

2011-04-17T13:24:00.000+01:00

There's only one game in the Premier League today but it's a big game. Arsenal haven't been scoring too many at home recently and Liverpool aren't high scorers on their travels so I'll be going for under 3.5 goals. On Betfair it's available at 1.4. My ratings have this outcome at 1.14.

Chinese Grand Prix

2011-04-16T10:46:00.000+01:00

I am still amazed when looking at the odds for the podium finish and winner markets that Lewis Hamilton seems over-rated and his team mate Jenson Button under-rated. Yesterday Hamilton's odds to finish on the podium were around the 1.5 mark yet you could get Button for around 2.7. I backed Button of course. Last season you'd expect Hamilton to do better in a McLaren as he'd grown up with the team whereas Jenson was new to the team but this season they should at least be equal. With the issue of degrading tyres I think as long as Button's odds are higher than Hamilton's you should have a bet. The 2009 champion knows how to get the most out of his tyres, if you can last a couple of laps longer on worn tyres than your rivals that is a significant advantage. By contrast Hamilton wears out his tyres quicker to gain a quick advantage but an overall disadvantage. It was interesting in qualifying that Hamilton decided to only make one quick run in 3rd qualifying to preserve an extra set of tyres for the race. The current odds for Button is around the 1.5-1.7 mark so I can make a 60% profit on my stake already though I think I'll green up with it slightly biased towards Button.

Premier League 16/04/11

2011-04-15T19:48:00.002+01:00

Only 2 of the 5 games have a bit of value in the goals markets according to my ratings. Everton vs Blackburn and W.B.A. vs Chelsea. At Goodison Everton take on a poor Blackburn side who have conceded 38 goals on their travels and only won 3 away this season. As for the home side; they've only lost 3 games at home and scored an average 26 goals. My odds have the over 2.5 goals at 1.49 and that outcome is available at 1.86 on Betfair.
W.B.A. aren't a bad side at home but they face a Chelsea team who've only conceded 16 goals away from home so far this season though Chelsea have lost 5 away games in that time. As long as they drop the white elephant that is Torres the visitors should score at least a couple to go with a hard fought W.B.A. goal. West Brom have scored in their last 9 home games with 5 goals against some of the league's 'big boys'. I'm taking odds of 1.87 when they should be 1.51.

Tottenham vs Stoke & Chelsea vs Wigan

2011-04-08T20:20:00.000+01:00

Just the 2 bets in the Premier League tomorrow and both of them are under 3.5 goals so I hope the games are very dull!
Tottenham never score crazily at home and they face a Stoke side who haven't scored in their last 5 away games. My ratings suggest that the odds should be 1.11 and Betfair has it as 1.33.
With Chelsea at home you expect them to thrash a poor Wigan side just like they did last year with an 8-0 spanking of the visitors but this could be tougher than they expect. Make no mistake Chelsea should win but not by too many so I'm hoping to see Torres in the starting line-up as he can't hit a barn door since his move! My ratings for under 3.5 goals say the odds should be 1.25 and on Betfair they're available for 1.64.

Wigan vs Tottenham Update

2011-04-02T12:30:00.000+01:00

The odds for over 1.5 goals are decreasing and they're below 1.36 with over £1600 matched on the market so I'll not be having a bet on this game today. The money matched is still low when compared to other 1.5 goals markets in the Premier League so people don't know which way this will go.
Just a quick note on the game at W.B.A. I got odds of 1.42 on over 1.5 goals.

Premier League 02/04/11

2011-04-01T19:58:00.000+01:00

I've got 3 matches that are showing value in the goals markets. Arsenal vs Blackburn, W.B.A. vs Liverpool and Wigan vs Tottenham. In the game at the Emirates I think the market has overestimated how many goals there will be. The ratings have it as 1.25 for under 3.5 goals, on Betfair it's 1.7. If you look back through Arsenal's home games you won't see many games that finished with more than 3 goals.

In the other 2 matches I will be going for over 1.5 goals. My ratings are saying that the odds should be 1.17 for both games. The odds on Betfair are around 1.4 in the game at W.B.A. There is no liquidity in the game at Wigan which I guess could be down to Tottenham's injury problems. If the odds go lower than 1.36 then it'll be a no bet as I like to have a good margin between my odds and Betfair's.

Padova vs Atalanta

2011-03-29T20:45:00.000+01:00

On thursday I was looking through twitter and saw a tweet saying that a Serie B game had stupidly low odds for a draw. I had a look and there was over £200,000 matched on the game with 98% matched on the draw, the price of which was around the 1.65 mark. I looked around on the net for any hard facts that there would be a draw but of course there weren't any. It must have started with someone backing every price with a lot of money and then the chinese whispers start and the price gets shorter as everyone tries to get on. I've been told that this play for a draw attitude is the norm in the Italian Serie B at this time of the season. If I were a paying fan it'd annoy the crap out of me knowing your team is not playing for a win.

When I looked back at the market on the friday the draw was 1.4 which sounded totally unrealistic, anything could happen and the game would look suspicious if it finished 0-0 so a couple of goals would be needed. I laid the draw at 1.4 with the intention of greening up when the price increased. I think other people had the same idea on Betfair as the price gradually rose as the layers tried to get their money matched, when it got to 1.5 I greened up and got out of there. I think there is definitely money to be made with these games, you just have to get in the market early and back high to lay low or lay at a low price when you think the market can't get lower. I'd never think about just straight backing the draw as things will invariably go wrong, a "fixed/settled" match is never a dead cert, it could even be an elaborate betting sting by a big bettor.

Formula 1

2011-03-22T17:22:00.000Z

This weekend sees he return of the F1. Thank god for that. New cars, drivers and some new rules. KERS is back to give drivers an extra speed burst and there's also the adjustable rear wings which promise to make overtaking easier. You can only use the new wing when you're 1 second behind the car in front to assist in an overtaking manoeuvre. What happens if you use it when one driver is 1.05 seconds behind? A drive through penalty? And what if the car in front has KERS? That'll surely just cancel both the technologies out. We'll soon find out. Another change is the tyres will be supplied only by Pirelli and to make racing more interesting and challenging they've designed the tyres to degrade quicker so that teams will have to make multiple pit stops. Is it just me or does it sound strange that a tyre manufacturer is deliberately making tyres worse. I mean who's gonna want to buy Pirelli tyres for their car after seeing F1 cars bouncing around a track with shoddy tyres on. It's a strange way to advertise their company!!
Will I be having a bet on the Australian Grand Prix? Probably but not on the Mclaren boys. The car in testing has been slow and unreliable when compared with Ferrari and Red Bull. They have come out and said they've majorly revamped the car ahead of the 1st grand prix but that is a risk in its self. The top places at the Australian Grand Prix will be decided between Ferrari, Red Bull and maybe Mercedes. I for one cannot wait and just hope that I can get up in time. I'm out drinking on the saturday so I'll try and take it easy. Yeah right!

Pool Betting

2011-03-21T20:29:00.000Z

I usually get involved with Tote pool bets when the money rolls over a few times. Yesterday the Tote Jackpot was at Newton Abbot and was £1.3 million. I've been to the races there many a time and one thing you come to understand is that long odds horses don't usually come 1st at this course. I used a system from the Racing and Football Outlook which allows you to pick 3 horses in 4 races and 1 horse in each of the other 2 races. A full perm of this would be 81 lines but this only costs 9 lines. I had the 1st 5 winners and they all were on the same line so I decided the best option was to go on Betfair and lay off my selection to get a profit whatever happened. Looking at the live Tote Pool betting info I worked out that if my final selection won I along with 750 other people or so would win around £1700 each. On Betfair the horse was 3.6 so I laid off for a £200 profit. The horse was placed, it would've been nice to say I'd won the Tote Jackpot but I got the £200 and as an extra consolation prize I got the placepot in as well for another £74.
I was going to do my Premier League ratings on saturday morning but I had the hangover from hell I should've done them earlier in the week, getting lazy. The weekend has more internationals(yawn) so no football betting for me for a little while.

More Cheltenham

2011-03-17T22:26:00.002Z

One more day of the Cheltenham Festival to go. I had 2 winners today; Noble Prince and Big Bucks. The each way 4-timers didn't pay off today after a good start where I got all 3 places in the 1st race. I'm going to select most of my horses tomorrow after I know how much rain has fallen but I've taken quite a liking to Pandorama for Gold Cup glory, the more rain the better. I like to look at the trends for the big races, Kauto Star and Denman are probably too old now and as for Imperial Commander he can be inconsistant so they don't figure in my plans. In the other races I've made up a shortlist but as I've said it's a bit of wait and see at the moment. I've got the day off so it's going to be a good day of drinking and hopefully watching my winning horses. Not the same as being there like I have been for the last few years but it beats working! Anyone have any views on the racing tomorrow?

Cheltenham So Far...

2011-03-16T17:52:00.000Z

For the first time in about 6 years I've been working on Cheltenham week, normally I book the week off and spend it down the pub to watch the action but this year I ran out of holiday and the girlfriend does take some offence that I book time off to watch horses but not to go for a foreign holiday with her or something!
I do a lot of driving in my job so the only way I can get the coverage of the racing is to look at the Betfair in-play odds on my phone. The radio doesn't work on MW so I can't listen to 5live or anything. It's hardly the same cheering on your horse looking at the in-play odds trying to gauge how much of the race is left and what chance of winning is there.
The only good point of working through it is that it saves some money. You know what it's like, you hear some whispers in the pub or bookies about a horse who's a dead cert so out comes the money and down the drain it usually goes. Don't listen to whispers they've probably been heard thousands of times before and all the value would've disappeared.
What I've been doing is the night before the next day's racing is to pick three horses in the 1st 4 races and arrange them in some each way accumulators then pick 1 horse in the 4 races to back on their own. So far I've had the place parts of 2 accumulators come in but the singular horses I've picked haven't done a thing which is a little disheartening but still 2 days to go so fingers crossed.

Living The Dream or Dreaming The Life?

2011-03-11T19:56:00.000Z

So what is betting/gambling/trading to you? Is it just a bit of fun? Something to keep your mind active? Maybe just a bit of bookie bashing? Or is it a longing to be financially independant? In my case it started as a just an occasional flutter on the horses moving on to trying to make betting systems. I just can't see myself working a mundane job for another 40 years earning an average wage. Far better to be your own boss. That's the plan anyway. The only problem I have is discipline and boredom. I know 2 key problems! It's easy when you're winning but place one bet too many and everything soon comes crashing down. I've got much better I never chase losses but I think I bet on too many different sports. Cricket, Rugby, football, snooker all sorts.
The problem most bettors have are that they crave the excitement of the win, the rush of adrenaline as you risk a large amount of money, the impulsiveness of it all I guess.
My Premier League ratings are doing ok and even better since I gave them a bit of a tweak a few weeks back. If I can stick to betting on these and just a couple of other sports then that will be a start. I think another way of making(or saving) money would be to not keep all my betting money in my betting accounts as that leads to boredom betting temptation so I'll put in enough to place the bets but no more and then take it straight back out again. This is the first year that I've taken proper records of all my bets which helps to pinpoint where I have gone wrong and where I'm doing alright.

Blackpool vs Chelsea

2011-03-07T19:11:00.000Z

Just a quick post today to say that I'll betting under 3.5 goals at 1.75. My ratings say that this outcome should be 1.38.

Newcastle vs Everton

2011-03-05T10:40:00.000Z

The ratings have over 2.5 goals as 1.59 and it's available at 2.18. Newcastle have scored an impressive 31 goals at home this season though at the same time have conceded 20 goals so they're not immune from letting slip a few goals, just look at the 4-4 draw with Arsenal. Everton are stuttering along not being able to string any kind of consistent form together but they could get a goal here to help with my bet.

Arsenal vs Sunderland

2011-03-04T19:42:00.000Z

My ratings suggest that there is some value to backing under 3.5 goals. On Betfair it's 1.45 but I have it down as 1.23. The likeliest outcome would be one of four. 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 3-0. Arsenal haven't lost at home in their 7 games. Sunderland's form is a bit mixed away from home, they beat Chelsea 3-0 in november but have lost against Everton and Stoke recently.

Chelsea vs Man Utd

2011-03-01T19:05:00.003Z

Right my ratings are saying that this game should have goals in it though on past performances it doesn't look like the most exciting game. These "big four" games are always hyped up and they seem to never live up to it. Maybe it's cos they are evenly matched or maybe they're both scared of losing to a big rival so the match becomes a boring stalemate. What I need is an early goal to liven things up a bit like when England go 1-0 down only then do they start playing better as a team.
I'm just gonna put a little money on the over 2.5 goals as it's 2.4 on Betfair and I rate it at 1.43.

Stoke vs W.B.A.

2011-02-28T19:50:00.000Z

My odds suggest that over 2.5 goals should be rated at 1.56 and you can get 2.22 on Betfair. West Brom's away form is pretty bad, they've only scored once in 5 games and conceded a lot more. A new manager can't change their defensive inabilities overnight but it could help with confidence up front I'm hoping. Stoke aren't totally solid at home but their set pieces make them a big danger in the opposing area.
Man City let me down yesterday when Fulham came to visit but West Ham made sure I was just in profit. I thought Liverpool looked more like the relegation threatened team, it was quite odd there was something missing that's for sure.

West Ham vs Liverpool and Man City vs Fulham

2011-02-27T12:58:00.000Z

Only 2 games today but I'l be betting on both of them. Of the 4 bets I had yesterday 3 of them were winners so as long as one of today's bets wins I'll be in profit over the weekend.

West Ham vs Liverpool

The home side will be desperate for a victory today to make sure they're not left stranded at the bottom of the table. The win in the FA Cup should be a boost to them. Liverpool looked to have turned the corner on their away form. In their last 2 away games they've beaten Chelsea and Wolves. I rate the over 2.5 goals at 1.31 and on Betfair it's 2.24.

Man City vs Fulham

Man City I expect to score freely in this game. They've scored 21 goals at home so far this season and Fulham shouldn't pose too mush of a problem as they have only won once away all season though they might sneak a goal. My ratings suggest the odds for over 2.5 goals should be 1.51 so the 2.08 on Betfair is good value.

Premier League Bets 26/02/11

2011-02-25T19:09:00.000Z

There are 5 games on saturday and I'll be betting on 4 of them.

Aston Villa vs Blackburn
This game should have plenty of goals with 7 out of the last 9 games at Villa ending up with 3 goals or more.
I have the over 2.5 goals at 1.25 and currently on Betfair it's 1.92.

Everton vs Sunderland
Probably a bit of a cagey game with both sides eager to not lose to come out with at least a draw.
Over 1.5 goals using my odds is 1.1 and available at 1.37.

Newcastle vs Bolton
This should be a very open and entertaining game, Newcastle are high scoring at home and Bolton are looking to get closer to the Europa League places.
I rate over 2.5 goals at 1.35 and on Betfair it's 2.1.

Wigan vs Man Utd

Man Utd are obviously favourites for this but I think Wigan could sneak a goal to help me with my bet.
Over 2.5 goals is 2.0 on Betfair and I rate it at 1.31.

Cricket South Africa vs West Indies

2011-02-24T18:28:00.000Z

I've been dipping my toe into the cricket markets. The other day I couldn't believe England were 1.08 to win against the Netherlands when the dutch were flying along. It seemed to me that there were either a lot of patriotic gamblers or people just blindly thought England would win cos they are a big team. I laid them with a view of greening up when the odds increased which they soon did. An easy profit.
With today's game I backed South Africa hoping for a few quick early wickets to green out early, though I had to wait until after the 4th wicket to green up. Being at work isn't the most ideal time to be betting as I couldn't look at all the changes in price but I kept enough of an eye on it to be able to get out if things didn't go to plan.

Goal Fest at Bloomfield Road? Blackpool vs Tottenham

2011-02-22T17:26:00.001Z

If you look at Blackpool's previous games at home this season in the league you'll see that Blackpool have scored in every game even against the "big" teams. Saying that they have conceded in every game as well but this looks good for the overs markets. As with a lot of teams that are newly promoted Blackpool don't abide by the Premier League "rules". I.E. They are supposed to keel over when an established team comes to visit, they're not supposed to go out and play attacking football!
Here's my odds for the under/over markets.

Under/Over 1.5 goals 9.33 / 1.12
Under.Over 2.5 goals 3.72 / 1.36
Under/Over 3.5 goals 1.84 / 2.18

On Betfair the odds for over 2.5 goals is 1.75 and as you can see I've rated that as 1.36 so lets hope that Blackpool keep up their scoring(and conceding) record at home.

Monday, what to do?

2011-02-21T11:45:00.000Z

Have monday off work as there ain't enough work to be done on quiet days at this time of year. Annoys me cos I either don't get paid or have to use up a days holiday. In the last year I've only had 2 weeks off cos I've had to use the rest up for these quiet days when the company I work for wants to save some money. On the bright side it did allow me to go down the pub last night, I used to love sunday drinking but when you've got a driving job it isn't worth the risk of getting stopped by the police the next morning being still over the limit.
Treated myself to a bacon, sausage and egg sandwich, totally stuffed now! Just watching the cricket, Australia are 1.06 to win. A bit low for a bet me thinks. Not much to bet on, might check out some racing later or I might actually just keep my money safe for another day. Boredom bets aren't the best idea.
One thing pissed me off on saturday. I had a £2 bet on the Scoop 6, my 1st 5 horses came in the places and I thought I was looking good for a share of the placepot as I had Lough Derg as my last horse. This front running horse is super powerful and never gives up the lead without a fight so I was sure I'd get a place, I could've laid him for a place at 1.6 and made a guaranteed profit of £24 but I've seen this horse in a lot of races and thought he wouldn't fail me now. Something wasn't right though and he faded pretty quick with nothing left in the tank. Lesson learnt I'll certainly lay off for a profit next time.

WBA VS Wolves

2011-02-20T11:56:00.000Z

The only Premier League action this weekend and it's a relegation battle. Both teams have conceded a lot of goals this season though West Brom have scored quite freely at home whereas Wolves have only scored 9 goals away from home. My odds are too similar to the odds on Betfair in the unders/overs markets, there's a 9% difference in price for over 2.5 goals but I only place a bet if it's over 12% and the fact that Wolves can't seem to score on away games means that result is unlikely. The only bit of value I can find in this match is 1 goal or more in the Total goals market, I have it as 1.012 and Betfair as 1.08. I know the odds aren't big but it's got a 98% chance of happening.

Leicester City vs Bristol City

2011-02-18T22:05:00.000Z

Phew that was a close one, I nearly blew it. As usual it was the greed that nearly got the better of me. I put a bet on a home win after looking at all the form, Leicester are very strong at home and Bristol are not nearly as good on their travels. It was looking good after an early goal and I should have greened up for a good profit but I let it ride thinking Leicester were bound to get another goal soon. They didn't. Listening to the match commentary it was clear that Bristol were the better team in the 2nd half but I did my usual fatalistic approach to a bet that's losing, I still let it ride when I should've taken a medium sized hit rather than risk the lot. I feel very lucky to be coming out of this match with a good profit thanks to a very late Leicester goal. One of these days I'm gonna learn, I have to. There's only so many lessons I can learn! I'm gonna have to go into each bet with a clear purpose as to what profit I want, what risk I'm willing to take and when to get out of a winning/losing bet.

I'm up....Slightly!

2011-02-12T21:57:00.001Z

I could've done with my bet coming in for the Birmingham vs Stoke match but it could've been worse. Their were 2 early goals in the Blackpool vs Aston Villa game and I thought my under 3.5 goals bet was in trouble but it came though for me in the end. That leaves me up for the day but only very slightly, better than a loss though eh?!
There's just the one Premier League fixture on tomorrow, the Bolton vs Everton game. My odds show there's value in the over 2.5 goals, I have it as 1.33 and on Betfair it's at 2.12. I'm thinking that this game has to be a lively, end to end affair. Bolton are not far off the European places and Everton are only 3 points behind their opponents so a win here will move them up to the top half.

My Saturday Bets

2011-02-11T19:02:00.000Z

Ok so it was a bad week for me last week but no need to start panicking just yet. It's been suggested that I bet on the 2.5 goals markets where the odds are better. I've looked at this and I would make a level stakes profit over the season using my ratings and until last week that was the same with the 1.5 goals markets so I'll be betting on mostly over 1.5 goals markets but picking out certain 2.5 goals market selections as long as the value margins are looking good.

On to the selections. Man Utd vs Man City, over 1.5 goals for this game. I've got odds of 1.12 and Betfair have it as 1.35. Birmingham vs Stoke, over 2.5 goals my odds are 1.43 and you can get 2.24. In the Blackpool vs Aston Villa match my odds are pretty similar but the under 3.5 goals market have it as 1.4 but on Betfair it's 1.65. The last game I'll be taking an interest in is the W.B.A. vs West Ham match. The Betfair odds aren't spectacular but odds of 1.78 for over 2.5 goals when I have it as 1.22 is a value bet to be on and hopefully both teams really go out and attack.

Super Sunday?

2011-02-06T13:04:00.000Z

I'll be betting on both the Premier League games today. I've got odds of 1.14 in the over 1.5 goals markets for both matches and on Betfair they're 1.35 for West Ham vs Birmingham and 1.31 for Chelsea vs Liverpool.
What will the result be at Chelsea today? Well Liverpool's away form isn't good at all and they've lost their best player so I can't see them coming away with any points unless Chelsea play a shocking match and throw the game away.

Newcastle vs Arsenal and Wigan vs Blackburn 05/01/11

2011-02-04T22:22:00.000Z

Taken hours updating my ratings and of all the matches on saturday only 2 games have any value on the goals markets. They are the Newcastle vs Arsenal and Wigan vs Blackburn.
I rate the over 1.5 goals in the 1st game at 1.08 and it's currently available at 1.3. In the game at Wigan the over 1.5 goals I rate at 1.06 and I've backed that result at 1.45 on Betfair. Lets hope these bets make up for the last 3 or I'll end up tearing my hair out!

Yesterday's Results

2011-02-03T12:58:00.000Z

After having 3 winning bets from 3 on tuesday to having none from 3 last night I'm not in the best of moods but it's not catastrophic. Having 3 bets go down like this hasn't happened before so when the back odds are pretty low is does wipe out a fair bit of the bank. What I'd usually do after a loss would be to make a rash decision and try and recover my losses by betting on some random sport, this is why most gamblers fail. What I'm doing is a live betting test of my ratings over most of the Premier League season so I'm hoping this is just a blip, it's very unlikely to happen again anytime soon(hopefully).

Premier League Matches 02/02/11

2011-02-02T16:04:00.000Z

All three of my bets came in yesterday so a good result, lots of goals are what I like. Tonight the rest of the Premier fixtures are being played and I'll be betting on 3 games.

Blackburn vs Tottenham
Over 1.5 goals 1.33(1.14)
Spurs are needing to get going to capture 4th spot in the league and Blackburn have got European ambitions of their own so this should be an end to end game.

Bolton vs Wolves
Over 1.5 goals 1.34(1.07)
Bolton have only lost 2 at home Wolves have only won 2 away and scored just 9 goals so a home win looks likely.

Fulham vs Newcastle
Over 1.5 goals 1.42(1.16)
My ratings suggest that Fulham are twice as likely to score compared to Newcastle but I think it'll be a scrappy affair, a 1-1 draw maybe. The value is good though so definitely worth a bet.

Premier League Matches 01/02/11

2011-02-01T16:26:00.000Z

Well after all the excitement of the final day of the transfer window it's back to the real thing tonight. I might as well add my thoughts on the Torres and Carroll transfers. Torres wanted to leave Liverpool in the summer but was persuaded to stay, he wants to win a Champions League winners medal so staying at Liverpool guaranteed this couldn't happen for yet another season, they're not good enough to qualify again so Chelsea was the obvious choice, it'll be interesting to see how he fits in. As for Liverpool buying Carroll, I think that was probably in desperation to replace Torres. £35 million for an inexperienced Premier League striker? He's worth £10 million tops. He became the fans' favourite in Newcastle, maybe that bumped up his price? The one thing a football team shouldn't do is sell your star striker and not bring anyone in to replace him, it's all very well saying that Alan Pardew will have that money to spend in the summer but there's still over 3 months of the season left and relegation is not out of the question. Short term greed for long term loss??

Anyway on to the games tonight. I'll be having bets in 3 of the matches. The Sunderland vs Chelsea match has odds on Betfair for the goals markets almost exactly the same as mine so that leaves Arsenal vs Everton, Man Utd vs Aston Villa and W.B.A. vs Wigan.

Arsenal vs Everton
Over 1.5 goals 1.27(1.12)
Arsenal are strong at home and Everton have drawn 7 away this season, a 1-1 or 2-1 score could be on the cards.

Man Utd vs Aston Villa
Over 1.5 goals 1.22(1.05)
Utd's home form is very impressive this season so 2 goals looks very do-able.

W.B.A. vs Wigan
Over 1.5 goals 1.29(1.12)
This is going to be a scrappy relegation battle, both defences aren't the best so goals look likely.

Liverpool vs Fulham

2011-01-26T17:42:00.000Z

Liverpool look set to claim 3 more points tonight with a visit from Fulham. Liverpool have been strong at home this season scoring 19 and conceding 10. Fulham have only scored 9 goals on their travels though they've only let in 11. My ratings suggest that Liverpool are strong favourites though not as much as the Betfair odds suggest. With a good away win under their belts a confident display is expected here but there aren't any good value odds to be had so I won't be betting even if a home win with a couple of goals looks very likely.

Premier League Matches 25/01/11

2011-01-25T18:21:00.000Z

From a betting point of view I have no interest in the Blackpool vs Man Utd game, the odds on Betfair for the unders/overs markets are almost identical to my own so that leaves the Wigan Vs Aston Villa match. Villa will be looking to build upon their win over Man City but their away form is pretty poor so just by buying one striker, expensively doesn't mean that the problem is solved. Saying that though Wigan's home form reads 2/6/4. Too many draws and only 2 wins as well as 21 goals conceded. Villa have conceded 26 and only scored 9 on the road so far this season. With all this in mind I'm still going to have a bet, with two defences as bad as this there should be goals. I rate over 1.5 goals at 1.1, Betfair have it as 1.39.

Bolton vs Chelsea

2011-01-24T17:29:00.000Z

Chelsea's away form has been pretty poor over the last couple of months so god knows why they are the odds on favourite to win this match. Bolton aren't the best team at home with 5 draws but they have only lost once at home this season. My ratings say that the overs markets are where the value is. Recently all my bets have been on overs I put this down to the fixtures producing games with one team a clear form favourite and the other being out of form. Now I know Bolton haven't scored against Chelsea at home since 2002 but this has got to be their best chance yet. I have odds of 1.14 for over 1.5 goals and at the moment that is 1.33 on Betfair.

Blackburn vs W.B.A.

2011-01-23T15:46:00.000Z

The only Premier League game on today and it doesn't look the most exciting fixture but it is a game I'll be betting on. The over 1.5 goals on Betfair at the moment have odds of 1.35 and I've rated that at 1.14.
I think I was very unlucky in the Villa game yesterday, Man City should've got a least a goal but managed to blow it. It leaves me down over the weekend(32 pence down) so I'm hoping today's game has goals.

Saturday Bets 22/01/11

2011-01-22T17:23:00.000Z

Talk about leaving it late...My nails have been bitten to nothingness but all my bets have come in today. The problem with backing results at lower odds is that if one out of 3 fails it'll be a loss so as long as I only have a loss once in 4 or 5 bets I'll make a profit but to be honest I'm looking for better than that to confirm that my ratings are correct.
The last game today is Aston Villa vs Man City. It's another value bet my ratings give the odds for the over 1.5 goals market at 1.09 and on Betfair they have it at 1.31. Will Bent live up to expectations and give villa a boost or will Man City triumph(please no 0-0 draw)?

Saturday's Premier League Bets

2011-01-21T19:46:00.000Z

There are 3 games I'll definitely be getting involved in. First up is Wolves vs Liverpool. Liverpool's away form continues to be unimpressive but surely they must turn a corner soon? I think Wolves will fancy their chances being at home and Liverpool have to force the pace to get a league win for their 'new' manager. I've given the the over 1.5 goals at 1.14 and they're on Betfair at 1.4.
My ratings also show the over 1.5 goals in the Everton vs West Ham and the Newcastle vs Tottenham games are value bets to have. In the 1st game I rate the odds at 1.12 and in the 2nd at 1.08. Betfair have them at 1.31 and 1.29.
On another note the Tottenham vs Man Utd game let me down last weekend, there's nothing I hate more than a 0-0 scoreline. That result left me down on the week but only slightly, you have to take the good with the bad and you can't be right every time just most times(hopefully!).
There are 3 more matches that I haven't rated yet, the saturday late game and the sunday and monday matches. If there's any bets worth going for I'll keep you updated.

Tottenham vs Man Utd

2011-01-16T12:05:00.000Z

Can Tottenham leapfrog Chelsea into 4th place or will Man Utd regain 1st place from their city rivals?
I think that Tottenham have their best chance or beating Man Utd at home in many years.

My Odds

1.5 goals under/over 7.96 / 1.14
2.5 goals under/over 4.03 / 1.33
3.5 goals under/over 1.71 / 2.4

Betfair Odds

1.5 goals under/over 3.9 / 1.33
2.5 goals under/over 1.94 / 2.04
3.5 goals under/over 1.38 / 3.5

The over 1.5 goals market on Betfair has that outcome at 1.33 where I have it at 1.14, at more than double what I think it should be I'll be going for that. The over 2.5 goals is another value bet though I think it will be a tight game so only a small bet on that outcome.

Sunday Derby Day on Merseyside Liverpool vs Everton

2011-01-14T19:21:00.002Z

I'm usually wary of betting on derby games but the Liverpool vs Everton match should be a great game. K.D. is back at Anfield looking to get his 1st win under his belt, Liverpool have a good goal scoring record at home this season and it's a derby game so extra passion will be involved.

My Odds

1.5 goals under/over 6.82 / 1.17
2.5 goals under/over 3.17 / 1.46
3.5 goals under/over 1.63 / 2.57

Betfair

1.5 goals under/over 3.2 / 1.41
2.5 goals under/over 1.74 / 2.24
3.5 goals under/over 1.29 / 4.1

The Betfair odds are a lot different to mine and I can only assume that this is down to the Gerrard factor but he's only scored once at home in the league this season and had 4 assists so I believe those odds are good value. I'll be going for over 1.5 goals at 1.41 as I have that outcome at 1.17.

Goals galore? This weekends betting on the unders/overs markets

2011-01-13T19:59:00.000Z

I've done my ratings and calculated the odds for all of saturdays Premier League games. There are 3 games that interest me. Chelsea vs Blackburn, West Ham vs Arsenal and Wigan vs Fulham. The other games either have no value or barely enough to bother with.

Chelsea vs Blackburn

My Odds

1.5 goals under/over 17.82 / 1.06
2.5 goals under/over 6.68 / 1.17
3.5 goals under/over 2.61 / 1.62

Betfair Odds

1.5 goals under/over 5.5 / 1.2
2.5 goals under/over 2.46 / 1.66
3.5 goals under/over 1.59 / 2.56

Betfair's odds are a lot more generous on the overs markets. The 1.2 looks good value when I've given over 1.5 goals at 1.06( a 94.33% chance) and the over 2.5 goals might be worth a small bet at 1.66.

West Ham vs Arsenal

My Odds

1.5 goals under/over 9.33 / 1.12
2.5 goals under/over 4.17 / 1.31
3.5 goals under/over 1.84 / 2.18

Betfair Odds

1.5 goals under/over 4.3 / 1.28
2.5 goals under/over 2.14 / 1.85
3.5 goals under/over 1.46 / 3.0

With odds of 1.28 when I think they should be 1.12 for the over 1.5 goals is another good value bet to be had.

Wigan vs Fulham

My Odds

1.5 goals under/over 4.33 / 1.3
2.5 goals under/over 2.44 / 1.69
3.5 goals under/over 1.33 / 4.00

Betfair Odds

1.5 goals under/over 3.0 / 1.46
2.5 goals under/over 1.68 / 2.38
3.5 goals under/over 1.26 / 4.6

This is a game to bet on if you want the better odds though of course the likelihood of your bet winning has less of a chance.

The 3 bets I'll be going for is the 1.2 on the over 1.5 goals as well as 1.66 on the over 2.5 goals in the Chelsea game and 1.28 in the over 1.5 goals in the Arsenal game. The odds may seem low but as long as there is value there will be profit in the long term.

Blackpool vs Liverpool

2011-01-11T19:55:00.000Z

Now why did they have to sack Hodgson before this match? My ratings suggest it'll be a high scoring game but now that the big K.D. is in charge the players will surely play differently. The odds on the goals markets are very tempting. Blackpool's home record isn't bad at all whereas Liverpool's away form is pretty shocking, I have a home win and the draw closely matched as the likely outcome but the K.D. factor will undoubtably spur on Liverpool.

My Odds-

1.5 goals under/over 12.87 / 1/08
2.5 goals under/over 5.62 / 1.21
3.5 goals under/over 2.19 / 1.84

Betfair Odds-

1.5 goals under/over 4.4 / 1.26
2.5 golas under/over 2.22 / 1.8
3.5 goals under/over 1.47 / 2.96

As you can see my odds are totally different so I'll be going for the over 1.5 goals at 1.26 as my odds have it as 1.08. I don't want to get greedy and go for bigger odds and if there is no goal in the 1st 25 minutes and it's looking like there won't be any then I'll get out with a small loss.

Arsenal vs Man City

2011-01-05T18:12:00.000Z

This is a very pivotal game in the outcome of the Premier League. Man City with all their money looking to win(buy) their 1st Premier League title and Arsenal looking to sneak into contention with steady results behind them as others are out of form.

Now my ratings for the game are very different from the odds on Betfair so I was a bit wary but I've checked them and nothing seems out of place so here they are:

1.5 goals under/over 7.96/1/14
2.5 goals under/over 4.03/1.33
3.5 goals under/over 1.71/2.4

Betfair odds:

1.5 goals under/over 4.2/1.3
2.5 goals under/over 2.08/1.91
3.5 goals under/over 1.44/3/2

As you can see all the overs odds look very attractive but I'd suggest having a bit of caution on the over 2.5 and 3.5 markets. The bet to go for has to be over 1.5 goals at 1.3 where my ratings have this outcome at 1.14.

Fulham vs W.B.A.

2011-01-04T19:06:00.000Z

On paper this looks like a close match. Both teams are in the bottom half. Fulham aren't very convincing at home, drawing 5 and W.B.A. have conceded 21 away from home this season.
Here's my ratings of the unders/overs markets:

1.5 goals under/over 3.74/1.36
2.5 goals under/over 2.15/1.86
3.5 goals under/over 1.27/4/71

Betfair odds:

1.5 goals under/over 3.4/1.4
2.5 goals under/over 1.79/2.26
3.5 goals under/over 1.29/4.3

The only stand out value odds are the over 2.5 goals at 2.26 where I rate that outcome at 1.86.

Liverpool vs Wolves

2010-12-29T19:24:00.000Z

Liverpool's home form is very good whilst Wolves' form away from home is pretty awful. The Betfair odds for the unders/Oovers markets are either similar or no value when compared to mine so I'm going for a Liverpool win with a handicap of -1.5 goals at 2.03. I'm hoping for a nice early Liverpool goal for an opportunity to green up.
My odds for the match are home win 1.5, draw 4.21 and away win 10.6. The Betfair odds for the home win have over-rated Liverpool's chances as is often the case when a big named team face a relegation candidate but it's not a significant difference.

Arsenal vs Chelsea

2010-12-27T15:01:00.000Z

A big game tonight. Both teams have been blowing hot and cold so I wouldn't go for a match result bet. My odds for the unders/overs markets are:

1.5 Under 3.74. Betfair odds-3.9
Over 1.36. 1.33

2.5 Under 2.15. 1.93
Over 1.86. 2.06

3.5 Under 1.27. 1.37
Over 3.65. 3.65

The 1.5 odds are similar so there's no value there, the 2.5 market is too risky for me so that leaves the 3.5 market. Under 3.5 goals is showing some value so that's the bet I'll be having today hoping that both teams will cancel each other out and there will be no early goals to give the option of treading out early all green.

Man City vs Everton

2010-12-20T15:32:00.000Z

Finally a game that's on! My stats have this game as an Everton win the most likely, a draw next best and the home win the least likely. The problem I see is that Everton have only won once away from home this season though they have drawn 5 times from 8. Maybe a small lay of a Man City win would be the trick. It's going to be a low scoring game, my odds suggest under 1.5 goals is 2.46. under 2.5 goals 1.72 and under 3.5 goals 1.12. The Betfair odds have it as 3.4, 1.76 and 1.3. In the total goals market 1 goal or more is 1.15 and 2 goals or more is 1.68.
The bet I'm going for tonight will be under 3.5 goals at 1.3 as this is more than double the price I have given.

Liverpool vs Fulham-Match Off

2010-12-18T12:01:00.000Z

How annoying I'd just finished doing my ratings for this game then found out the match has been called off for "safety reasons". In this modern Britain where the compensation culture is rife a match has to be called off if the area surrounding a ground is slightly difficult to walk over. Some chancer would inevitably fall over and blame either the council or the football club for the fall and they would probably settle out of court as it's cheaper than dragging it through the courts, this is how these leeches(personal injury lawyers) to society work, this is how they "earn" money.
The pitch is actually playable so anyone who wants to attend the game should do so at their own risk, simple eh?! Anyone who says it should be called off in case there could be a stadium sized disaster just have to look at the amount of police who attend every match to see that they can handle just about anything. It's time we took the cold weather as a normal yearly event and got used to it rather than shutting everything down and treating snow and ice as freak events like the man-made climate change brigade would like you to believe.

Sunderland vs Bolton

2010-12-17T20:59:00.000Z

This is going to be a close match I feel. Sunderland haven't lost at home this season, have only conceded 5 goals but have only scored 10. Bolton have only won 2 away games but have drawn 4. Both teams are in the top half of the table fighting for the European competition places so a close scrappy match is on the cards.
The draw looks a likely outcome and I'd go for under 3.5 goals at 1.33 on Betfair as my odds say the odds should be 1.17.

Man Utd vs Arsenal

2010-12-13T19:40:00.000Z

A very big game to decipher tonight. Man Utd's home form is very good with 24 goals in 8 matches though the 7 goals against Blackburn accounts for a fair chunk of that. Arsenal's away form isn't to be sniffed at either. The most likely result is a Man Utd win with a draw next best and Arsenal the least likely result. I recommend a bet or 2 on the under/overs markets. Betfair have over 1.5 goals at 1.31 but I rate it at 1.12. The over 2.5 goals is up at 2.0 but I rate that at 1.31 so that's what I'll be going for.

Tottenham vs Chelsea

2010-12-12T15:55:00.000Z

This is a very big game for both teams. Tottenham are aiming to get into the top 4 and Chelsea are looking to put their bad recent form behind them and come up with a convincing result against their London rivals. The goals markets on Betfair have odds similar to my own the only stand out odds are the under 3.5 odds of 1.4 when I believe them to be 1.28. I'd put money on under 3.5 goals and also lay Chelsea at 2.34 as these odds are far too low for a team with bad recent form and away from home

Newcastle vs Liverpool

2010-12-11T12:55:00.001Z

Well this is an interesting game. It's hard to say who will win this but there definitely will be goals. Liverpool's away form is not good, they've only scored 5 goals away in the league all season but they look to have turned the corner. Newcastle at home anything can happen with the fans behind them and the fact the players will want to impress their new boss so I think the best bet to be on is over 1.5 goals at 1.37. My odds say that over 1.5 goals should be 1.23 so there's some value to be had. If you think there will be a lot of goals you could back over 2.5 goals at 2.12 as my odds have that result at 1.68.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa

2010-12-06T19:47:00.000Z

My stats say that Liverpool should win this, they've conceded only 7 goals in the league at home so I can't see Villa get much of a chance here. In my ratings Liverpool are clear favourites and the draw far more likely than an away win. I'd go for a bet on laying the away side at 5.5 and a bet on under 3.5 goals at 1.36.

More Losses

2010-11-29T22:25:00.000Z

Another bad few days in my betting activities. Since saturday I've lost £182. Backing a goal or more in the Stoke vs Man City game didn't help as the goals came far too late having already laid out to limit my losses. Tonight I laid over 2.5 goals in the Barcelona vs Real Madrid match so that was another shocker for me. I'm hoping now to get a few wins on the trot to restore confidence and I'm successfully avoiding making stupid rash bets to try and claw back the losses.

Major Losses

2010-11-25T21:04:00.000Z

Last saturday I got far too confident in my trading in horse racing, I started really well over £60 up after trading in 6 races but sadly I went for one more race out of pure greed. It was a race just before the footy started and I needed the trading money to put on a football bet just before kick off but I couldn't resist winning another £10. I laid the strong favourite for a serious amount of money hoping it would just slightly drift but it continued to shorten and I was looking at my day's profit being wiped out. What did I do? Oh I only let the bet go in play... Am I stupid? Of course I am, I don't even listen to my own advice. The horse never got above my lay price and of course it cruised to victory. Hey and what did I do after this bombshell?? Yeah you've got it I thought I should start chasing to try and get some money back. I put money on Chelsea to beat Birmingham even though they were 1-0 down. Chelsea can win can't they, ha of corse they can't when it matters to me. What a mug, I thought to myself. What can I do now? I wasn't going to put this major loss on my blog but I thought if I don't then I'll be forever be in denial and just be pretending how good I am at betting to myself and everyone who reads this.
All this week I've been working on new ideas to be more disciplined, my theories work fine it's just the practical that's the problem. I've written up a business plan for my betting activities so every bet must work with the plan, there can be no rash bets, all trades must be traded out of at a certain percentage of loss/profit no matter what and all bets should be recorded(I do this already). At the beginning of the betting week I'll write a diary of upcoming sports that need looking into for possible bets then throughout the week write reports on them and at the end of the week I'll write a review of all my betting activities so that over time I can analyse where I'm going right and wrong. I'm hoping this will be the way forward in my betting, discipline is the key treating this as a business should help matters.

This weeks Betting

2010-11-19T18:49:00.000Z

I've been doing quite a bit of trading on the racing this week after work. There's usually some all weather racing on, the sort of races I'd never consider looking at for normal betting but for trading they're perfect. There are usually a few races with strong favourites with a high turnover in trade so all that needs to be done is to predict which way the odds will swing and to keep backing and laying to your advantage for a nice green up. Easy eh?! God if only. I don't have any trading software or bots whereas a lot of the traders of course will have. By the time I've found a trade it can be gone as quick as a flash. The whole point of trading on horse racing was to see if it is a viable betting opportunity and to just try it out and get a feel for it. After 3 days of evening trading I came away with an £86 profit, not bad for a novice at this. Of course there were a lot of hairy moments where the odds went in completely the wrong direction and I'd foolishly trade in-play. Message to self, NEVER TRADE IN-PLAY ON HORSE RACING. The market in-play is too volatile, things will go wrong. Trading software will certainly help as doing this manually is far too slow, it's something I'm going to seriously look into. Any comments are more than welcome.

b l u e o r a n g e

11/02/12 Premier League Betting

I Need Some Help....

21/01/12 Premier League Betting

Weekend Premier League 17-18/12/11

Premier League 10/12/11

Premier League Bets 27/11/11

Premier League Bets 26/11/11

The First Premier League Bets Of The Season

The Championship 01/11/11

Finally Back To Betting

Slacking...

The Belgian Grand Prix

New Premier League Season

Finally The New Football Season!!!

Hungarian Grand Prix

German Grand Prix

Summer Update

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Bet(un)fair

Formula One

Golf-Well That Didn't Work

US Open

Swedish & Norwegian Football

Goodbye Tote.....

Sepp Blatter, FIFA And All That

What To Do Now

End Of Season

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

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Chelsea vs Newcastle

An Easy Three Points For Man Utd?

Betfair Forum

Not A Bad Sunday

Sunday Premier League

Saturday Update

Premier League 07/05/11

Blackburn vs Bolton

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W.B.A. vs Aston Villa, Sunderland vs Fulham and Chelsea vs Tottenham

Blackburn vs Man City

Bolton vs Arsenal

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Premier League 23/04/11

Chelsea vs Birmingham

Newcastle Utd vs Man Utd

Arsenal vs Liverpool

Chinese Grand Prix

Premier League 16/04/11

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Tottenham vs Stoke & Chelsea vs Wigan

Wigan vs Tottenham Update

Premier League 02/04/11

Padova vs Atalanta

Formula 1

Pool Betting

More Cheltenham

Cheltenham So Far...

Living The Dream or Dreaming The Life?

Blackpool vs Chelsea

Newcastle vs Everton

Arsenal vs Sunderland

Chelsea vs Man Utd

Stoke vs W.B.A.

West Ham vs Liverpool and Man City vs Fulham

Premier League Bets 26/02/11

Cricket South Africa vs West Indies

Goal Fest at Bloomfield Road? Blackpool vs Tottenham

Monday, what to do?

WBA VS Wolves

Leicester City vs Bristol City

I'm up....Slightly!

My Saturday Bets

Super Sunday?

Newcastle vs Arsenal and Wigan vs Blackburn 05/01/11

Yesterday's Results

Premier League Matches 02/02/11

Premier League Matches 01/02/11

Liverpool vs Fulham

Premier League Matches 25/01/11